SHK industry in crisis? Our future control of craftsmanship

Yesterday: gas boiler, diesel tank, standard shower. Today: heat pump, WiFi thermostat, barrier-free wellness bathroom. The changing range of services offered by SHK artisans also tells the story of an industry in transition. For some time, system mechanics have not just been simple installers who limit themselves to laying pipes or connecting radiators. The current HVAC expert is also an electrician, installer and energy consultant: a true profession of the future.

Although the profession is centuries old, today’s professional profile has only existed in Germany since 2003: At that time, the previously separate professions of gas and water fitter and central heating and ventilation engineer were merged into system mechanics for sanitary, heating and air conditioning technology (SHK). In 2016 the training was modernized again, with new focuses such as building automation, digitalisation and energy efficiency. Today the profession covers an increasingly broader field and is considered a fundamental profession for a zero climate impact future.

As a result, the focus of the work has shifted in recent years. While in the past the bathroom was often the central project of many installers, today energy-efficient heating systems account for the majority of orders, also due to the high demand for heat pumps. But electrical and solar technology, smart home and sensor technology are also skills that are becoming increasingly important. Plumbing, heating and air conditioning have evolved from a classic installation sector into a versatile and modern multifunctional sector that takes into account the latest developments in digitalisation and perhaps soon also artificial intelligence.

It is therefore not surprising that there is a great need for skilled workers. Over the last 10 years there has been a slight upward trend in the number of apprentices, after the number had fallen dramatically between 2000 and 2010: currently around 15,000 new training contracts are signed every year, meaning that it is estimated that more than 35,000 aspiring tradespeople are undergoing SHK training.¹ The number of employees is also increasing and has risen from around 357,000 to over 390,000 since 2015, although in the same period the number of companies has fallen from 51,100 to around 48,000. Fewer Companies, More Employees: Many smaller companies are abandoned or moved to larger companies.²

The sales curve has developed equally dynamically: since the beginning of the millennium the market volume has more than doubled and between 2015 and 2023 the total turnover of the sector has increased annually to almost 62 billion euros. In 2024 the shock will be even greater: after a long successful period characterized by a constant sales boom, the Central Association for Sanitary Ware, Heating and Air Conditioning (ZVSHK) had to announce a drop in turnover of around 4%.²

Sales in billions of € | Source: ZVSHK and Destatis

ZVSHK also expects further sales losses of around 1% for 2025.³ In light of this troubling development, fears are growing: Is the once-thriving HVAC industry now sliding into a crisis?